Using a comparative case study approach, this report examines the factors that drive or hinder heat pump adoption in four European nations: Sweden, Germany, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

Heat pumps are a cornerstone of the UK Government’s decarbonisation agenda, as outlined in the 2021 Heat and Building Strategy (HM Government 2021). The electrification of domestic heating is expected to reduce the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 17% (MCS 2023). In late 2020, the then Johnson government set a target of 600,000 heat pump installations per year by 2028. Recently, the Climate Change Committee reported that by 2040, more than half of all homes in the UK (52%) will need a heat pump installed to meet climate targets, up from the current level of around 1% (CCC 2025). Despite allocating grant funding of around £450m per year under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS), data for 2024 shows the UK is installing only about 60,000 heat pumps annually, indicating the government’s target is unlikely to be met (DESNZ 2024a; MCS 2025). Given the significant gap between the desired and observed outcomes, understanding the factors that influence the UK’s relatively low rate of heat pump adoption is crucial.